U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM CLIMATE SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT (CSSR)

Fifth-Order Draft Table of Contents Front Matter About This Report........................................................................................ 1 Guide to the Report......................................................................................4 Executive Summary ................................................................................... 12 Chapters 1. Our Globally Changing Climate .......................................................... 38 2. Physical Drivers of Climate Change ................................................... 98 3. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change .................................... 160 4. Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections .................................... 186 5. Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ................................ 228 6. Temperature Changes in the United States ...................................... 267 7. Precipitation Change in the United States ......................................... 301 8. Droughts, Floods, and Hydrology ......................................................... 336 9. Extreme Storms ....................................................................................... 375 10. Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry ............ 405 11. Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States..... 443 12. Sea Level Rise ....................................................................................... 493 13. Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes .............................. 540 14. Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation .................................... 584 15. Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements .......... 608 Appendices A. Observational Datasets Used in Climate Studies ............................. 636 B. Weighting Strategy for the Fourth National Climate Assessment ................ 642 C. Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview ............................ 652 D. Acronyms and Units ................................................................................. 664 E. Glossary ...................................................................................................... 66

U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM CLIMATE SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT (CSSR)

Fifth-Order Draft Table of Contents Front Matter About This Report........................................................................................ 1 Guide to the Report......................................................................................4 Executive Summary ................................................................................... 12 Chapters 1. Our Globally Changing Climate .......................................................... 38 2. Physical Drivers of Climate Change ................................................... 98 3. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change .................................... 160 4. Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections .................................... 186 5. Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ................................ 228 6. Temperature Changes in the United States ...................................... 267 7. Precipitation Change in the United States ......................................... 301 8. Droughts, Floods, and Hydrology ......................................................... 336 9. Extreme Storms ....................................................................................... 375 10. Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry ............ 405 11. Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States..... 443 12. Sea Level Rise ....................................................................................... 493 13. Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes .............................. 540 14. Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation .................................... 584 15. Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements .......... 608 Appendices A. Observational Datasets Used in Climate Studies ............................. 636 B. Weighting Strategy for the Fourth National Climate Assessment ................ 642 C. Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview ............................ 652 D. Acronyms and Units ................................................................................. 664 E. Glossary ...................................................................................................... 66

Principles And Practices Fostering Inclusive Excellence: Lessons From The Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Capstone Institutions

Best-practices pedagogy in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) aims for inclusive excellence that fosters student persistence. This paper describes principles of inclusivity across 11 primarily undergraduate institutions designated as Capstone Awardees in Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s (HHMI) 2012 competition. The Capstones represent a range of institutional missions, student profiles, and geographical locations. Each successfully directed activities toward persistence of STEM students, especially those from traditionally underrepresented groups, through a set of common elements: mentoring programs to build community; research experiences to strengthen scientific skill/identity; attention to quantitative skills; and outreach/bridge programs to broaden the student pool. This paper grounds these program elements in learning theory, emphasizing their essential principles with examples of how they were implemented within institutional contexts. We also describe common assessment approaches that in many cases informed programming and created traction for stakeholder buy-in. The lessons learned from our shared experiences in pursuit of inclusive excellence, including the resources housed on our companion website, can inform others’ efforts to increase access to and persistence in STEM in higher education

The NASA AfriSAR campaign: Airborne SAR and lidar measurements of tropical forest structure and biomass in support of current and future space missions

International audienceIn 2015 and 2016, the AfriSAR campaign was carried out as a collaborative effort among international space and National Park agencies (ESA, NASA, ONERA, DLR, ANPN and AGEOS) in support of the upcoming ESA BIOMASS, NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) and NASA Global Ecosystem Dynamics Initiative (GEDI) missions. The NASA contribution to the campaign was conducted in 2016 with the NASA LVIS (Land Vegetation and Ice Sensor) Lidar, the NASA L-band UAVSAR (Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar). A central motivation for the AfriSAR deployment was the common AGBD estimation requirement for the three future spaceborne missions, the lack of sufficient airborne and ground calibration data covering the full range of ABGD in tropical forest systems, and the intercomparison and fusion of the technologies. During the campaign, over 7000 km2 of waveform Lidar data from LVIS and 30,000 km2 of UAVSAR data were collected over 10 key sites and transects. In addition, field measurements of forest structure and biomass were collected in sixteen 1-hectare sized plots. The campaign produced gridded Lidar canopy structure products, gridded aboveground biomass and associated uncertainties, Lidar based vegetation canopy cover profile products, Polarimetric Interferometric SAR and Tomographic SAR products and field measurements. Our results showcase the types of data products and scientific results expected from the spaceborne Lidar and SAR missions; we also expect that the AfriSAR campaign data will facilitate further analysis and use of waveform lidar and multiple baseline polarimetric SAR datasets for carbon cycle, biodiversity, water resources and more applications by the greater scientific community

Principles and Practices Fostering Inclusive Excellence: Lessons from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Capstone Institutions

Best-practices pedagogy in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) aims for inclusive excellence that fosters student persistence. This paper describes principles of inclusivity across 11 primarily undergraduate institutions designated as Capstone Awardees in Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s (HHMI) 2012 competition. The Capstones represent a range of institutional missions, student profiles, and geographical locations. Each successfully directed activities toward persistence of STEM students, especially those from traditionally underrepresented groups, through a set of common elements: mentoring programs to build community; research experiences to strengthen scientific skill/ identity; attention to quantitative skills; and outreach/bridge programs to broaden the student pool. This paper grounds these program elements in learning theory, emphasizing their essential principles with examples of how they were implemented within institutional contexts. We also describe common assessment approaches that in many cases informed programming and created traction for stakeholder buy-in. The lessons learned from our shared experiences in pursuit of inclusive excellence, including the resources housed on our companion website, can inform others’ efforts to increase access to and persistence in STEM in higher education

Anticoagulants and the Propagation Phase of Thrombin Generation

The view that clot time-based assays do not provide a sufficient assessment of an individual's hemostatic competence, especially in the context of anticoagulant therapy, has provoked a search for new metrics, with significant focus directed at techniques that define the propagation phase of thrombin generation. Here we use our deterministic mathematical model of tissue-factor initiated thrombin generation in combination with reconstructions using purified protein components to characterize how the interplay between anticoagulant mechanisms and variable composition of the coagulation proteome result in differential regulation of the propagation phase of thrombin generation. Thrombin parameters were extracted from computationally derived thrombin generation profiles generated using coagulation proteome factor data from warfarin-treated individuals (N = 54) and matching groups of control individuals (N = 37). A computational clot time prolongation value (cINR) was devised that correlated with their actual International Normalized Ratio (INR) values, with differences between individual INR and cINR values shown to derive from the insensitivity of the INR to tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI). The analysis suggests that normal range variation in TFPI levels could be an important contributor to the failure of the INR to adequately reflect the anticoagulated state in some individuals. Warfarin-induced changes in thrombin propagation phase parameters were then compared to those induced by unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux, rivaroxaban, and a reversible thrombin inhibitor. Anticoagulants were assessed at concentrations yielding equivalent cINR values, with each anticoagulant evaluated using 32 unique coagulation proteome compositions. The analyses showed that no anticoagulant recapitulated all features of warfarin propagation phase dynamics; differences in propagation phase effects suggest that anticoagulants that selectively target fXa or thrombin may provoke fewer bleeding episodes. More generally, the study shows that computational modeling of the response of core elements of the coagulation proteome to a physiologically relevant tissue factor stimulus may improve the monitoring of a broad range of anticoagulants

The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation

BACKGROUND: Most analyses of land-use and land-cover change in the Amazon forest have focused on the causes and effects of deforestation. However, anthropogenic disturbances cause degradation of the remaining Amazon forest and threaten their future. Among such disturbances, the most important are edge effects (due to deforestation and the resulting habitat fragmentation), timber extraction, fire, and extreme droughts that have been intensified by human-induced climate change. We synthesize knowledge on these disturbances that lead to Amazon forest degradation, including their causes and impacts, possible future extents, and some of the interventions required to curb them. ADVANCES: Analysis of existing data on the extent of fire, edge effects, and timber extraction between 2001 and 2018 reveals that 0.36 ×106 km2 (5.5%) of the Amazon forest is under some form of degradation, which corresponds to 112% of the total area deforested in that period. Adding data on extreme droughts increases the estimate of total degraded area to 2.5 ×106 km2, or 38% of the remaining Amazonian forests. Estimated carbon loss from these forest disturbances ranges from 0.05 to 0.20 Pg C year−1 and is comparable to carbon loss from deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year−1). Disturbances can bring about as much biodiversity loss as deforestation itself, and forests degraded by fire and timber extraction can have a 2 to 34% reduction in dry-season evapotranspiration. The underlying drivers of disturbances (e.g., agricultural expansion or demand for timber) generate material benefits for a restricted group of regional and global actors, whereas the burdens permeate across a broad range of scales and social groups ranging from nearby forest dwellers to urban residents of Andean countries. First-order 2050 projections indicate that the four main disturbances will remain a major threat and source of carbon fluxes to the atmosphere, independent of deforestation trajectories. OUTLOOK: Whereas some disturbances such as edge effects can be tackled by curbing deforestation, others, like constraining the increase in extreme droughts, require additional measures, including global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Curbing degradation will also require engaging with the diverse set of actors that promote it, operationalizing effective monitoring of different disturbances, and refining policy frameworks such as REDD+. These will all be supported by rapid and multidisciplinary advances in our socioenvironmental understanding of tropical forest degradation, providing a robust platform on which to co-construct appropriate policies and programs to curb it

The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation

Approximately 2.5 × 10 6 square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year −1 ), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year −1 ). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. Policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest

Changes in land cover and terrestrial biogeochemistry

1. Changes in land use and land cover due to human activities produce physical changes in land surface albedo, latent and sensible heat, and atmospheric aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations. The combined effects of these changes have recently been estimated to account for 40% ± 16% of the human-caused global radiative forcing from 1850 to present day (high confidence). As a whole, the terrestrial biosphere (soil and plants) is a net “sink” for carbon (drawing down carbon from the atmosphere), and this sink has steadily increased since 1980 (very high confidence). Because of the uncertainty in the trajectory of land cover, the possibility of the land becoming a net carbon source cannot be excluded (very high confidence). 2. Climate change and induced changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events (e.g., droughts, floods, and heat waves) have led to large changes in plant community structure with subsequent effects on the biogeochemistry of terrestrial ecosystems. Uncertainties about how climate change will affect land cover change make it difficult to project the magnitude and sign of future climate feedbacks from land cover changes (high confidence). 3. Since 1901, regional averages of both the consecutive number of frost-free days and the length of the corresponding growing season have increased for the seven contiguous U.S. regions used in this assessment. However, there is important variability at smaller scales, with some locations actually showing decreases of a few days to as much as one to two weeks. Plant productivity has not increased commensurate with the increased number of frost-free days or with the longer growing season due to plant-specific temperature thresholds, plant–pollinator dependence, and seasonal limitations in water and nutrient availability (very high confidence). Future consequences of changes to the growing season for plant productivity are uncertain. 4. Recent studies confirm and quantify that surface temperatures are higher in urban areas than in surrounding rural areas for a number of reasons, including the concentrated release of heat from buildings, vehicles, and industry. In the United States, this urban heat island effect results in daytime temperatures 0.9°–7.2°F (0.5°–4.0°C) higher and nighttime temperatures 1.8°– 4.5°F (1.0°–2.5°C) higher in urban areas, with larger temperature differences in humid regions (primarily in the eastern United States) and in cities with larger and denser populations. The urban heat island effect will strengthen in the future as the structure, spatial extent, and population density of urban areas change and grow (high confidence)

Physical drivers of climate change

1. Human activities continue to significantly affect Earth’s climate by altering factors that change its radiative balance. These factors, known as radiative forcings, include changes in greenhouse gases, small airborne particles (aerosols), and the reflectivity of the Earth’s surface. In the industrial era, human activities have been, and are increasingly, the dominant cause of climate warming. The increase in radiative forcing due to these activities has far exceeded the relatively small net increase due to natural factors, which include changes in energy from the sun and the cooling effect of volcanic eruptions. (Very high confidence) 2. Aerosols caused by human activity play a profound and complex role in the climate system through radiative effects in the atmosphere and on snow and ice surfaces and through effects on cloud formation and properties. The combined forcing of aerosol–radiation and aerosol– cloud interactions is negative (cooling) over the industrial era (high confidence), offsetting a substantial part of greenhouse gas forcing, which is currently the predominant human contribution. The magnitude of this offset, globally averaged, has declined in recent decades, despite increasing trends in aerosol emissions or abundances in some regions (medium to high confidence) 3. The interconnected Earth–atmosphere–ocean system includes a number of positive and negative feedback processes that can either strengthen (positive feedback) or weaken (negative feedback) the system’s responses to human and natural influences. These feedbacks operate on a range of timescales from very short (essentially instantaneous) to very long (centuries). Global warming by net radiative forcing over the industrial era includes a substantial amplification from these feedbacks (approximately a factor of three) (high confidence). While there are large uncertainties associated with some of these feedbacks, the net feedback effect over the industrial era has been positive (amplifying warming) and will continue to be positive in coming decades (Very high confidence)